Why the Progress Bar Is Lying to You

Why the Progress Bar Is Lying to You

Probably the most common progress indicator is the file download bar found in Web browsers. Download time should be easy to predict: All a computer needs to do is divide the total file size by the measure rate of download. But download speed is unpredictable, subject to the ebbs and flows of your connection, the busyness of the file's server, and the performance of your router.

The progress bar for an application installer, or setup file, is an order of magnitude more complicated than a download-progress bar. It must track hundreds of different operations, each of which is dependent on external factors such as computer speed, Internet connectivity, and user activity. Brad Myers, a professor at Carnegie Mellon's Human-Computer Interaction Institute, puts it thus: "There are many areas of computing where the system as a whole cannot predict how long [a task] will take, so progress bars don't move in a consistent way." Estimating how long it will take to install something as complex as a computer game borders on guesswork.

The result? App developers don't always bother to make their progress bars accurate. Instead, they use freely available off-the-shelf progress-bar code that tracks how many raw operations have been completed, granting no special weight to those that may take longer than others. In some situations, developers give up entirely on traditional, determinate progress bars, resorting to indeterminate progress bars, or throbbers, in user-interface parlance. These indicators look and move in ways that suggest progress—think spinning pinwheels—but really just repeat until the task is complete.

I always suspected as much.

My rule of thumb: The first 99% of a download or program installation will take anywhere from thirty seconds to ten minutes. The last .5% borders on the infinite.

It's the same principle that governs how time-outs work in basketball games. Each team is allotted 3 time-outs per half, until the last two minutes, when they are allotted 3,257 time-outs.

"Doesn't carrying each pig down to the creek for a drink of water take a long time?"
"Yeah, but what's time to a pig?"

It's the same principle that governs how time-outs work in basketball games. Each team is allotted 3 time-outs per half, until the last two minutes, when they are allotted 3,257 time-outs.

Hmmm. I stay as far from basketball as I can. Perhaps you've uncovered one of the reasons.

Stealing somebody's joke - what it would be like if your GPS operated like a computer progress bar.

"You will arrive at your destination in 15 minutes...300 years...2 seconds."

Stealing somebody's joke - what it would be like if your GPS operated like a computer progress bar.

"You will arrive at your destination in 15 minutes...300 years...2 seconds."

Perfect!

Not lying. People have just always assumed the wrong definition of the word "bar":

2
: something that obstructs or prevents passage, progress, or action

Actually it's hard to achieve GPS unit estimated arrival times without breaking the speed limit, at least on my Garmin Nuvi.

Actually it's hard to achieve GPS unit estimated arrival times without breaking the speed limit, at least on my Garmin Nuvi.

You mean the Speed Suggestion.

Actually it's hard to achieve GPS unit estimated arrival times without breaking the speed limit, at least on my Garmin Nuvi.

Hmm. I always notice mine updating as I go along. I usually gain a few minutes based on my lackadaisical adherence to the speed limit.

You'll know my message has completely loaded when this progress bar is finished:

It's the same principle that governs how time-outs work in basketball games. Each team is allotted 3 time-outs per half, until the last two minutes, when they are allotted 3,257 time-outs.

Hmmm. I stay as far from basketball as I can. Perhaps you've uncovered one of the reasons.

That and ...

1) Double dribbling
2) Traveling
3) Shooting or passing without first dribbling

No wonder the players act like thugs. There are no rules left in the game.

And here I thought this was about a certain site's; whose’ name will not be mentioned, last quarterly “thon”.

BTW, they’ve been down for almost 24 hours now. Good thing they raised all that extra $ for new servers.

Good thing they raised all that extra $ for new servers.

Why, aren't they bringing the drinks on time?

Stealing somebody's joke - what it would be like if your GPS operated like a computer progress bar.

"You will arrive at your destination in 15 minutes...300 years...2 seconds."

Like almost everything else, the guy who writes the XKCD comic has already thought of it:

The Nuvi can't do it, but the marine ones work well on ETA's.

It's the same principle that governs how time-outs work in basketball games. Each team is allotted 3 time-outs per half, until the last two minutes, when they are allotted 3,257 time-outs.

Hmmm. I stay as far from basketball as I can. Perhaps you've uncovered one of the reasons.

That and ...

1) Double dribbling
2) Traveling
3) Shooting or passing without first dribbling

No wonder the players act like thugs. There are no rules left in the game.

You can thank Michael Jordan for that. He was able to go from the top of the opposing key and slam dunk and the ball would never hit the court. There was a reason they called them "The Jordan Rules..."