The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

I locked the older thread since real polls are about to descend upon us. With the advent of The Hawkeye Caucuses, the pols will start to mean something:

So, to begin, what exactly does winning the Iowa Caucus mean? How does it translate to delegates? I suspect that if it is close, the delegates will be sort of proportioned among the top 2 or 3, not necessarily in the order that they finished in, but because of some arcane rules concerning who runs the process. Who knows? Who can enlighten us?

Do any of the polls have any chance of being correct? Who will likely be the biggest loser (my choice - Bachmann)?

The fun begins.

This is probably the last gasp for non-Romney.

This is probably the last gasp for non-Romney.

Not agree. South Carolina is the first real test for the Non-Romney. And may he do well - very well.

I don't think the actual delegate counts from the small early states are what counts. Whoever doesn't end up in the top two or three in Iowa and New Hampshire is pretty much toast because their money sources dry up. It's later, when the also-rans have dropped out, that whoever the ultimate winner is racks up the big delegate counts, from the big states and the multi-state contests like Super Tuesday, when having the money to run lots of ads and support GOTV efforts counts a lot more.

I'm guessing the top three in Iowa will be (in no particular order) Paul, Romney, and one of the Socons. (If there's an Operation Chaos in play, with Dhims mucking up the Repub primaries and caucuses, they'll be pulling for Paul.) Since Paul's a non-starter with The Republican Establishment, that would mean it would be between Romney and the Socon.

I'd rather see a longer race between Romney and Gingrich, but I think Gingrich's luster is fading after the "enhanced scrutiny" he's been subjected to. To guess further (what do I know), I'll guess that Santorum will end up being the Designated Socon, mainly because he hasn't gotten very beaten up yet.

Romney leads Paul in new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll; Santorum surges
Des Moines Register
Dec 31, 2011

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania...

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2 ... m-surging/

Romney leads Paul in new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll; Santorum surges
Des Moines Register
Dec 31, 2011

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania...

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2 ... m-surging/

... which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Romney leads Paul in new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll; Santorum surges
Des Moines Register
Dec 31, 2011

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania...

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2 ... m-surging/

... which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

And, hey, if Paul actually wins, I will finally be happy with my political leanings...however briefly.

Headed for a Photo Finish in Iowa

The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%. ...

PPP surveyed 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters on December 31st and January 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7%.
Full results here

I have to admit that I couldn't decide where to put this poll. About 1/3 of people consider GW a serious problem - chalk up this (it is at its highest at least for quite awhile) to the constant media barrage on this subject. About 1/3 think it's only minor or non-existent problem. And about 1/3 think it's a problem, but not that serious. Talk about a mess.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... rgy_update

However, a majority of people do think Man has an effect. Truth by consensus is always a big problem.

I have to admit that I couldn't decide where to put this poll. About 1/3 of people consider GW a serious problem - chalk up this (it is at its highest at least for quite awhile) to the constant media barrage on this subject. About 1/3 think it's only minor or non-existent problem. And about 1/3 think it's a problem, but not that serious. Talk about a mess. ...

1. Jobs
2. Economy
3. Debt
...
...
18. Extinction of the purple-assed salamander
19. Global Warming Climate Change

Americans Fear Obama Reelection 2-1: Survey
http://www.newsroomamerica.com/story/20 ... urvey.html

(Newsroom America) -- Americans fear the reelection of President Barack Obama by a 2-1 margin, according to a recent US News survey, a result that shows the competitive nature of the race that's building even before a Republican nominee has been named.
"When it comes to how Americans view President Obama going into the new year, there appears to be very little spirit of Auld Lang Syne," said a Washington Whispers column by Paul Bedard Monday. "Instead, according to the new Washington Whispers poll, many voters aren't forgetting what they dislike about Obama and want him out office."
The magazine, in its New Year's poll, asked respondents what they feared most in 2012. By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans said Obama's reelection in November.

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/49247

[obaa's] 42% approval is not evenly distributed.
Among black people, he is at 83% approval.
Among white people, he is down to 35% approval. In 2008, he received 43% of the white vote — the highest for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Among Hispanic people, he is at 46% approval. In 2008, he received 67% of the Hispanic vote.
By age group, he is at 47% approval among voters under 30. In 2008, he received 66% of their vote.
Among voters 65 and older, he is at 41% approval. In 2008, he received 47% of their vote.
Elections are won in the states. Right now it looks like a bloodbath.
His approval is 52% in the East.
And 40% in the South.
And 40% in the West.
And 40% in the Midwest.

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Rasmussen Florida GOP Poll:

Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.

Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Those who will "never vote for Gingrich or Romney or Perry or ...." can either vote for Obama or vote third party or not vote (half equivalent.) The evangelicals may boycott the GOP if Romney is the candidate (or maybe not.)

When Al Smith ran, family tradition has it that my grandmother wouldn't vote for a Catholic but my grandfather just said, "If you are a Democrat, you vote Democrat even if you are also a Baptist."

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Possibly -- many of those who fear Obama could fear Republicans too.

Lots of people fear/loathe/whatever pretty much all politician.

South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters Jan 11-12 2012

Romney 29%
Gingrich 25%
Paul 20%
Perry 9%
Santorum 7%
Huntsman 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 7%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres20 ... ry/rep/sc/

I think only the top 3 can expect to go on from here -- in my opinion.

Rasmussen: South Carolina Republican Primary
Romney 28%
Gingrich 21%
Santorum 16%
Paul 16%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... an_primary

Paul's doing a whole damn sight better than expected in those polls.

From Jay Cost regarding Obama's 'uptick' in the national polling data...

So, this consolidation of the base Democratic vote over the last few months does not strike me as actual movement toward the goal of reelection, as it was probably going to happen anyway and losers in the last 20 years have managed the same feat as well. By itself, it is only getting him something around 45 percent of the two-party vote.

To win reelection, Obama must improve substantially with independent voters, a much different task than holding the party base. As we saw above, his current 40.6 percent approval with independents is not much different than what losing Democratic efforts have pulled over the last 20 years. And this anemic showing with independents has basically been the long-term trend

:


http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/mor ... 17121.html

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Those who will "never vote for Gingrich or Romney or Perry or ...." can either vote for Obama or vote third party or not vote (half equivalent.) The evangelicals may boycott the GOP if Romney is the candidate (or maybe not.)

When Al Smith ran, family tradition has it that my grandmother wouldn't vote for a Catholic but my grandfather just said, "If you are a Democrat, you vote Democrat even if you are also a Baptist."

The only time I ever voted for a non-Republican was when Al Hirschfeld (look him up) ran for Manhattan Borough President against C. Virginia Fields. I ended up voting for the Marijuana/Green Party candidate who happened to be an acquaintance of mine. I voted for Bloomberg twice, but only because the other option was even less tenable. I voted for McCain even though I didn't like him because I knew all along that the Bamster would be an even bigger disaster.

My only goal is beating Obama. Nothing else matters, including "conscience."

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Those who will "never vote for Gingrich or Romney or Perry or ...." can either vote for Obama or vote third party or not vote (half equivalent.) The evangelicals may boycott the GOP if Romney is the candidate (or maybe not.)

When Al Smith ran, family tradition has it that my grandmother wouldn't vote for a Catholic but my grandfather just said, "If you are a Democrat, you vote Democrat even if you are also a Baptist."

The only time I ever voted for a non-Republican was when Al Hirschfeld (look him up) ran for Manhattan Borough President against C. Virginia Fields. I ended up voting for the Marijuana/Green Party candidate who happened to be an acquaintance of mine. I voted for Bloomberg twice, but only because the other option was even less tenable. I voted for McCain even though I didn't like him because I knew all along that the Bamster would be an even bigger disaster.

My only goal is beating Obama. Nothing else matters, including "conscience."

Before anyone jumps on Kelly for this, I can affirm that Bloomberg was indeed more tenable than the other candidates, as hard as that is to believe.

Mark Green (shudder).

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Those who will "never vote for Gingrich or Romney or Perry or ...." can either vote for Obama or vote third party or not vote (half equivalent.) The evangelicals may boycott the GOP if Romney is the candidate (or maybe not.)

When Al Smith ran, family tradition has it that my grandmother wouldn't vote for a Catholic but my grandfather just said, "If you are a Democrat, you vote Democrat even if you are also a Baptist."

The only time I ever voted for a non-Republican was when Al Hirschfeld (look him up) ran for Manhattan Borough President against C. Virginia Fields. I ended up voting for the Marijuana/Green Party candidate who happened to be an acquaintance of mine. I voted for Bloomberg twice, but only because the other option was even less tenable. I voted for McCain even though I didn't like him because I knew all along that the Bamster would be an even bigger disaster.

My only goal is beating Obama. Nothing else matters, including "conscience."

Before anyone jumps on Kelly for this, I can affirm that Bloomberg was indeed more tenable than the other candidates, as hard as that is to believe.

Mark Green (shudder).

My knight in shining armor!

Of such ohole re-election fears are true, then how could he be re-elected? Voters who fear him would still vote for him?

Those who will "never vote for Gingrich or Romney or Perry or ...." can either vote for Obama or vote third party or not vote (half equivalent.) The evangelicals may boycott the GOP if Romney is the candidate (or maybe not.)

When Al Smith ran, family tradition has it that my grandmother wouldn't vote for a Catholic but my grandfather just said, "If you are a Democrat, you vote Democrat even if you are also a Baptist."

The only time I ever voted for a non-Republican was when Al Hirschfeld (look him up) ran for Manhattan Borough President against C. Virginia Fields. I ended up voting for the Marijuana/Green Party candidate who happened to be an acquaintance of mine. I voted for Bloomberg twice, but only because the other option was even less tenable. I voted for McCain even though I didn't like him because I knew all along that the Bamster would be an even bigger disaster.

My only goal is beating Obama. Nothing else matters, including "conscience."

Before anyone jumps on Kelly for this, I can affirm that Bloomberg was indeed more tenable than the other candidates, as hard as that is to believe.

Mark Green (shudder).

My knight in shining armor!

I'm a New Jersey resident, but if I'd been voting in New York, I'd have voted for the meddling, officious priss, too.

PPP South Carolina

Gingrich - 34%, Romney - 28%, Ron Paul - 15%, Santorum - 14%, Perry - 5%, Roemer - 3%, SE/Not sure - 2%

Make yer bets, ladies and gentlemen ...

PPP South Carolina

Gingrich - 34%, Romney - 28%, Ron Paul - 15%, Santorum - 14%, Perry - 5%, Roemer - 3%, SE/Not sure - 2%

Make yer bets, ladies and gentlemen ...

Makes me wonder if those poll numers are why the story just came out on ABC about Newt wanting an open marriage #2. MSM wants to knock him down so Romney will be Obaa opponent?