The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

About a week ago (see upthread), Nero was at a +10 Disapprove. Now, he's at a +1 Approve, an 11 point change. Since both are Rasmussen, I assume the methodology is the same. Therefore the American voting public are really confused (or fucked up - take your pick).

Every pollster out there must be pulling out their remaining hair.

This appears to be a function of where we are in the election cycle. Things will solidify when there is a Republican nominee and the electorate can make a direct comparison between candidates. I would expect Obama to have an initial edge, with voters gradually drifting to the Republicans.

Note: This prediction depends on the Republicans actually trying to win. That didn't happen last time.

Romney up big in Illinois

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors. ...

Romney up big in Illinois

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors. ...

The Machine has the word ...

illinois.JPG

That still looks pretty ugly.

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

illinois.JPG

That still looks pretty ugly.

Santorum campaigned heavily in the more rural, generally more southern, parts of the state, actively turning it into a rural vs. Chicago campaign. Hence the map.

A rundown of the Senate races with the races ranked by most likely to change hands.

http://nationaljournal.com/hotline/the- ... ubhplead_1

Well, now that the race has become Romney v. Obama, Mitt is up 48-44 in the latest Rasmussen.

Well, now that the race has become Romney v. Obama, Mitt is up 48-44 in the latest Rasmussen.

Having closely tracked the last three election cycles, it's really hard to predict future poll trends. Even the last couple weeks before the election can see substantial movement. On the plus side Dick Morris claims that undecideds break 80% against the incumbent.

Well, now that the race has become Romney v. Obama, Mitt is up 48-44 in the latest Rasmussen.

Having closely tracked the last three election cycles, it's really hard to predict future poll trends. Even the last couple weeks before the election can see substantial movement. On the plus side Dick Morris claims that undecideds break 80% against the incumbent.

I think the conventional wisdom is the undecideds who break late they go 80% against the incumbent. In other words, they're looking for a reason to keep the incumbent. If Obama manages to pick up most of them by the end of September, what is left won't make that much difference.

Now for some sobering numbers. These polls cover the last month (number of polls in parentheses if more than 1) a time frame in which it became clear that Romney would prevail for the nomination, albeit with a plurality of voters in contested races. In almost no poll is the leader polling at 50% or higher, except for those with very large leads. Some of the states are probably meaningless, since Romney has almost no chance in them, but many of the others are battlegrounds where the election will be won or lost.

NC Romney +3.5(2)
NJ Nero +9
Mass Nero +11
VA Romney +5
CO Nero +13
NM Nero +16
NY Nero +24 (2)
MI Nero +5.5 (2)
IN Romney +9
NV Nero +14
WI Nero +11 (2)
FL Nero +7
OH Nero +6
PA Nero +3

Going with these, Romney is headed for 198 electoral votes - a crushing loss. Only NC and VA appear to be bright spots and they are close. And why is Nero so far ahead in FL and CO? The next month's numbers should help clarify the picture a little.

In their euphoria over Santorum dropping out, the Romnoids better wake up and smell the coffee. He is weak in the south, though likely to carry it anyway, but so far his showing in those battleground states (OH, PA, MI, WI, NM, CO, FL, NC, VA, IN, NV) that will decide the election is far from stellar. He can lead Nero nationally by 10, but if he can't carry those swing states he will lose.

Now for some sobering numbers. These polls cover the last month (number of polls in parentheses if more than 1) a time frame in which it became clear that Romney would prevail for the nomination, albeit with a plurality of voters in contested races. In almost no poll is the leader polling at 50% or higher, except for those with very large leads. Some of the states are probably meaningless, since Romney has almost no chance in them, but many of the others are battlegrounds where the election will be won or lost.

NC Romney +3.5(2)
NJ Nero +9
Mass Nero +11
VA Romney +5
CO Nero +13
NM Nero +16
NY Nero +24 (2)
MI Nero +5.5 (2)
IN Romney +9
NV Nero +14
WI Nero +11 (2)
FL Nero +7
OH Nero +6
PA Nero +3

Going with these, Romney is headed for 198 electoral votes - a crushing loss. Only NC and VA appear to be bright spots and they are close. And why is Nero so far ahead in FL and CO? The next month's numbers should help clarify the picture a little.

In their euphoria over Santorum dropping out, the Romnoids better wake up and smell the coffee. He is weak in the south, though likely to carry it anyway, but so far his showing in those battleground states (OH, PA, MI, WI, NM, CO, FL, NC, VA, IN, NV) that will decide the election is far from stellar. He can lead Nero nationally by 10, but if he can't carry those swing states he will lose.

Polls of adults, registered voters, likely voters or a mix?

Now for some sobering numbers. These polls cover the last month (number of polls in parentheses if more than 1) a time frame in which it became clear that Romney would prevail for the nomination, albeit with a plurality of voters in contested races. In almost no poll is the leader polling at 50% or higher, except for those with very large leads. Some of the states are probably meaningless, since Romney has almost no chance in them, but many of the others are battlegrounds where the election will be won or lost.

NC Romney +3.5(2)
NJ Nero +9
Mass Nero +11
VA Romney +5
CO Nero +13
NM Nero +16
NY Nero +24 (2)
MI Nero +5.5 (2)
IN Romney +9
NV Nero +14
WI Nero +11 (2)
FL Nero +7
OH Nero +6
PA Nero +3

Going with these, Romney is headed for 198 electoral votes - a crushing loss. Only NC and VA appear to be bright spots and they are close. And why is Nero so far ahead in FL and CO? The next month's numbers should help clarify the picture a little.

In their euphoria over Santorum dropping out, the Romnoids better wake up and smell the coffee. He is weak in the south, though likely to carry it anyway, but so far his showing in those battleground states (OH, PA, MI, WI, NM, CO, FL, NC, VA, IN, NV) that will decide the election is far from stellar. He can lead Nero nationally by 10, but if he can't carry those swing states he will lose.

Polls of adults, registered voters, likely voters or a mix?

About half are Rasmussen, so LV, but in general a mix. I'm not dredging through them - you can do it for yourself.

I report. You deride.

Now for some sobering numbers. These polls cover the last month (number of polls in parentheses if more than 1) a time frame in which it became clear that Romney would prevail for the nomination, albeit with a plurality of voters in contested races. In almost no poll is the leader polling at 50% or higher, except for those with very large leads. Some of the states are probably meaningless, since Romney has almost no chance in them, but many of the others are battlegrounds where the election will be won or lost.

NC Romney +3.5(2)
NJ Nero +9
Mass Nero +11
VA Romney +5
CO Nero +13
NM Nero +16
NY Nero +24 (2)
MI Nero +5.5 (2)
IN Romney +9
NV Nero +14
WI Nero +11 (2)
FL Nero +7
OH Nero +6
PA Nero +3

Going with these, Romney is headed for 198 electoral votes - a crushing loss. Only NC and VA appear to be bright spots and they are close. And why is Nero so far ahead in FL and CO? The next month's numbers should help clarify the picture a little.

In their euphoria over Santorum dropping out, the Romnoids better wake up and smell the coffee. He is weak in the south, though likely to carry it anyway, but so far his showing in those battleground states (OH, PA, MI, WI, NM, CO, FL, NC, VA, IN, NV) that will decide the election is far from stellar. He can lead Nero nationally by 10, but if he can't carry those swing states he will lose.

Polls of adults, registered voters, likely voters or a mix?

About half are Rasmussen, so LV, but in general a mix. I'm not dredging through them - you can do it for yourself.

I report. You deride.

My, my. Touchy this morning. It wasn't derision, just a simple and to the point question.

My, my. Touchy this morning. It wasn't derision, just a simple and to the point question.

Not touchy at all, just TIC. The numbers are numbers and will change, but the trend isn't very good right now.

TIC?

Tongue in cheek?

TIC?

Tongue in cheek?

good guess.

I really don't think the polls mean much until the last two weeks, and even then you have to watch the trend.

Gallup: Romney 48%, Obama 43% -- Registered voters!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Gallup: Romney 48%, Obama 43% -- Registered voters!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

What I find interesting about the graph is that only Romney, and then briefly in mid-February, got as high as 50%. Obama's high for the year, 49%, was once near the end of March.

In Florida, Nero +5 and Nero is at 50% - Registered Voters.

Hate to break it to some of you, but National Poll numbers mean squat unless they are showing momentum. The important numbers are in the battleground states. Thus the above number is quite sobering. Romney needs Florida.

In Florida, Nero +5 and Nero is at 50% - Registered Voters.

Hate to break it to some of you, but National Poll numbers mean squat unless they are showing momentum. The important numbers are in the battleground states. Thus the above number is quite sobering. Romney needs Florida.

And the Treyvon case is also turning into a big Get Out the Vote movement for Obama in the black community.

In Florida, Nero +5 and Nero is at 50% - Registered Voters.

Hate to break it to some of you, but National Poll numbers mean squat unless they are showing momentum. The important numbers are in the battleground states. Thus the above number is quite sobering. Romney needs Florida.

Link to that poll?

Some of these pollsters (CNN) have been dishonest at best.

In Florida, Nero +5 and Nero is at 50% - Registered Voters.

Hate to break it to some of you, but National Poll numbers mean squat unless they are showing momentum. The important numbers are in the battleground states. Thus the above number is quite sobering. Romney needs Florida.

And the Treyvon case is also turning into a big Get Out the Vote movement for Obama in the black community.

That is unpossible.

Barack The Great would never exploit racial tension to boost his support. It is wonderful to be alive in the Post Racial Era!

New York, Nero +27 (Registered Voters) - Nero at 57%.

I doubt anyone thinks NY is in play, though.

In Florida, Nero +5 and Nero is at 50% - Registered Voters.

Hate to break it to some of you, but National Poll numbers mean squat unless they are showing momentum. The important numbers are in the battleground states. Thus the above number is quite sobering. Romney needs Florida.

Link to that poll?

Some of these pollsters (CNN) have been dishonest at best.

I'd like to see the partisan breakdown of the samples, too.