The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

Here's Karl Rove's map: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/ ... _26_12.pdf

Wow, that's a long row to hoe.

And Romney can't carry his home state. When was the last time a POTUS candidate won an election but lost their home state? Looks like Romney is going to lose big unless people get their heads out of their butts.

Here's Karl Rove's map: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/ ... _26_12.pdf

Look at all of those blue states. It is sad how many Americans despise their country.

Aye. 'Tis disheartening.

Here's Karl Rove's map: http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/ ... _26_12.pdf

Wow, that's a long row to hoe.

And Romney can't carry his home state. When was the last time a POTUS candidate won an election but lost their home state? Looks like Romney is going to lose big unless people get their heads out of their butts.

Not even Texas is solid for Romney. Someone was getting on my case for being a pessimist yesterday. Just take a look at this map to see how screwed we are.

Get used to it folks. We are living in the United Socialist States of America, in reality if not in name. Forget trying hard and succeeding, forget the entrepreneurial spirit, forget pretending your children will have a better chance than you will. Covet thy neighbor's wealth is now the order of the day. And now lets all bow down to our government masters because they know what is best for us.

We still have 6 months until the election. I'm actually heartened that an incumbent can barely poll at 50%.

We still have 6 months until the election. I'm actually heartened that an incumbent can barely poll at 50%.

And Romney has not yet begun to fight. Anything can happen in the next six months.

We still have 6 months until the election. I'm actually heartened that an incumbent can barely poll at 50%.

I know, I know. But it is a bad sign that he would poll anywhere near 50%. It speaks very ill of the character of the nation.

As I have mentioned repeatedly on these threads, one has to actually despise this country and everything it stands for in order to support this man.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/ ... mas/538141

http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/washington-secrets/2012/04/vacation-backlash-blue-collar-dems-jealous-angry-obamas/538141

Thats nice, but it doesnt seem to be translating into any kind of results as far as the polls go. The blue collar states are still deep blue at last count. I guess people are still afraid of being racist?

http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/washington-secrets/2012/04/vacation-backlash-blue-collar-dems-jealous-angry-obamas/538141

Thats nice, but it doesnt seem to be translating into any kind of results as far as the polls go. The blue collar states are still deep blue at last count. I guess people are still afraid of being racist?

Bradley Effect.

One thing I've noticed in the two public opinion surveys that called me in the last month is that they used my name. That tells people--whether or not it's true--that their name will be hung on their responses in a database somewhere.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/washington-secrets/2012/04/vacation-backlash-blue-collar-dems-jealous-angry-obamas/538141

Thats nice, but it doesnt seem to be translating into any kind of results as far as the polls go. The blue collar states are still deep blue at last count. I guess people are still afraid of being racist?

Bradley Effect.

One thing I've noticed in the two public opinion surveys that called me in the last month is that they used my name. That tells people--whether or not it's true--that their name will be hung on their responses in a database somewhere.

Rush was saying earlier that he's convinced people are lying to pollsters to avoid being thought of as racist.

Did that happen in 2008? Did Obama get a smaller percentage of the vote in the actual election than he was getting in the polls?

I have to wonder about the accuracy of telephone polls now days what with so many people, myself included, not having a land line and only having a cell phone.

It seems to be more prevalent among the younger crowd but more and more people are going in that direction.

And even among some I know who still have land lines for emergencies (outbound calls), like my niece; she rarely bothers to answer her land line - lets it go to voice mail, checks and deletes messages every few days.

Like me, everyone who knows her and or needs to get in touch with her, calls her on her cell or sends her a text message and that includes her daughter’s school and her husband’s workplace.

Working in HR, I’ve noticed a greater number of people who list their “home” phone and their cell phone as the same number, likewise for their emergency contacts.

I have to wonder about the accuracy of telephone polls now days what with so many people, myself included, not having a land line and only having a cell phone.

It seems to be more prevalent among the younger crowd but more and more people are going in that direction.

And even among some I know who still have land lines for emergencies (outbound calls), like my niece; she rarely bothers to answer her land line - lets it go to voice mail, checks and deletes messages every few days.

Like me, everyone who knows her and or needs to get in touch with her, calls her on her cell or sends her a text message and that includes her daughter’s school and her husband’s workplace.

Working in HR, I’ve noticed a greater number of people who list their “home” phone and their cell phone as the same number, likewise for their emergency contacts.

These problems didn't just crop up yesterday, though. Rasmussen's last two election cycles were very accurate on election day.

Did that happen in 2008? Did Obama get a smaller percentage of the vote in the actual election than he was getting in the polls?

Some analysts think Obama got a Bradley Effect and a Reverse Bradley Effect at the same time--the thinking is that some folks lied to convince the pollsters they weren't racist, and some lied to convince the pollsters they weren't stupid.

In Florida, Romney +1, 46-45 (Likely Voters). Weak but positive.

Morning Jay: Obama’s Standing With Swing Voters Is Weak
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/mor ... 42137.html

Very few polls offer much more than this when it comes to what independent voters are thinking, but Quinnipiac does. Here are some interesting results from that poll:
-37 percent of independents have a favorable view of Obama, compared to 56 percent with an unfavorable view.
-37 percent of independents believe that Obama deserves to be reelected, compared to 58 percent who do not.
-28 percent of independents approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, compared to 67 percent who disapprove.
-38 percent of independents approve of Obama’s handling of foreign policy, compared to 54 percent who disapprove.
...
So, what is the bottom line? Obama has a few sources of strength with the independent vote, but these are outweighed at this point by substantial weaknesses. Independents disapprove of his job in general, and according to Quinnipiac, think he has done a bad job on the big issues, would not do as good a job as Romney, and in general does not deserve to be reelected.

I will one-up my previous assessment: barring a politically useful disaster of epic proportions, Zero is doomed.

I will one-up my previous assessment: barring a politically useful disaster of epic proportions, Zero is doomed.

Well, there is Iran on the horizon. A politically timed war could rally the people behind the president.

I will one-up my previous assessment: barring a politically useful disaster of epic proportions, Zero is doomed.

Well, there is Iran on the horizon. A politically timed war could rally the people behind the president.

somehow I suspect that, were it to happen, it would blow up in his face like he bough the war from Acme

I will one-up my previous assessment: barring a politically useful disaster of epic proportions, Zero is doomed.

I think likewise. I think it's apt to be an electoral repudiation of Carteresque proportions.

But then I thought it was impossible for Obama to win after video of his pastor literally screaming "God Damn America" emerged. So grain of salt.

I will one-up my previous assessment: barring a politically useful disaster of epic proportions, Zero is doomed.

Well, there is Iran on the horizon. A politically timed war could rally the people behind the president.

iran will be done by the israelis. and obaa will behave through all of it naturally, and shamefully.

Romney takes the lead in Gallup poll

Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney
Among registered voters
Download complete trend
OBAMA ROMNEY
04/24-29/2012 46% 47%
04/23-28/2012 47% 46%
04/22-27/2012 48% 45%
04/21-26/2012 50% 43%
04/20-24/2012 49% 43%
04/19-23/2012 49% 42%
04/18-22/2012 47% 44%
04/17-21/2012 47% 44%
04/16-20/2012 45% 46%
04/15-19/2012 44% 47%
These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results. Each five-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 2,200 registered voters; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Romney takes the lead in Gallup poll

Registered voters too, that's a few extra points for Romney.

In Virginia, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 51-43.

Bad, bad, bad in a necessary state.

In Virginia, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 51-43.

Bad, bad, bad in a necessary state.

What poll is that?