The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

The woman has been outed as a COMPLETE FRAUD! There are idiots still entertaining the idea of voting for her? (Don't answer that).

It's the Kennedy seat. I'm surprised they're not still voting for Teddy.

Gallup, 46/46. Registered voters. I'd say there are about 5% undecided. Both factors suggest a Romney lead at this point, registered voter surveys oversample democrat non-voters and challengers typically get 80% of the undecided (per Dick Morris.)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Gallup, 46/46. Registered voters. I'd say there are about 5% undecided. Both factors suggest a Romney lead at this point, registered voter surveys oversample democrat non-voters and challengers typically get 80% of the undecided (per Dick Morris.)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Obamugabe is polling at 46. Amazing. Simply amazing.

If that high a percentage of the country isn't disgusted by what has transpired over the last four years, dare I say this election doesn't even matter. We are fucked regardless.

Gallup, 46/46. Registered voters. I'd say there are about 5% undecided. Both factors suggest a Romney lead at this point, registered voter surveys oversample democrat non-voters and challengers typically get 80% of the undecided (per Dick Morris.)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Obamugabe is polling at 46. Amazing. Simply amazing.

If that high a percentage of the country isn't disgusted by what has transpired over the last four years, dare I say this election doesn't even matter. We are fucked regardless.

What's astounding is that even with the pollster's thumb on the scales with registered voter poll (which is basically junk that skews left by including unlikely voters,) the incumbent Giver-of-Light-and-Happiness™ is unable to get above 50%. This is utterly astounding for an incumbent at this point in the election cycle. In 1980, at the comparable point in the election cycle, IIRC Carter was up over Reagan by double digits.

Even more astounding is this figure comes after Obama's campaign has been spending many tens of MILLIONS of dollars running attack ads on Romney as "outsourcer-in-chief" while at Bain, while Romney's ad buys have been modest and not hard-hitting at all. Despite this advertising disparity in Obama's favor, the effect on Romney's support has been almost non-existent! A temporary sagging of a couple of points, well within the margin of error, is all that shows up in Rasmussen's numbers, and now Romney is right back were he was before Obama blew is wad running negative attack ads!

Obama spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Romney, and has nothing to show for it! Obama shot his bolt and got bupkis! Meanwhile. Romney raised over a hundred million dollars in June, and has husbanded his funds for later this summer when voters start to pay attention.

There's a reason why Obama supporters are running around saying things like the phrase "Kitchen cabinet" is racist, and making wild allegations that Romney lied about his role at Bain Capital, and that because he has some money in foreign bank accounts, it must means he was doing something illegal, immoral, or offensive to the sensitivities of leftwing loonies everywhere. The Obamabots are flailing at the windmills, because they know what the expensive polls say (things like PA might be in play,) and are scared straight out of their lunatic minds. They are desperate, they are grasping at straws, and they are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the wall to see if anything will stick. So far, nada.

If the Obamabots are having this much trouble trying to keep peoples' minds off the economy, wait until September when Romney (and Super-PACS supporting him) have ad buys that start to hammer the shit out Obama on the economic insanity and incompetence of his administration, just as likely voters begin to pay attention to the race, while Obama has already blown many tens of millions on ads that did work during the summer.

Obama and his allies will be reduced to claiming that Romney belonged to a secret pedophile club along with Coach Sandusky, and covertly went on outings with him to have week long orgies where they seduced little boys with candy and Ripple wine while having their asses beaten with car antennas until they barked like dogs.

They are going to need a lot of luck selling that sort of hysterical fantasy to undecided voters.

Love it, mixed metaphors and all.

There's a reason why Obama supporters are running around saying things like the phrase "Kitchen cabinet" is racist ...

Yes. His supporters are all ignorant. Here's a quote from the Congressional Record of March 12, 1935. This was before Obama was President, although he's trying his best to bring back that roaring 1930s economy.

The kitchen cabinet that sat in to advise Hoover was not different from the kitchen cabinet which advised Roosevelt. Many of the persons are the same. Many of those in Roosevelt's kitchen cabinet are of the same men or set of men who furnished employees to sit in the kitchen cabinet to advise Hoover.

Bolding mine.

Was Senator Long in possession of information that Franklin Roosevelt or Herbert Hoover was black?

Today Gallup has it 47/45 Obama (registered) and Ramussen has it 45/45 (likely.) Ramussen also says: "Among voters who remain uncommitted (5%) to either of the major party candidates, 46% are conservative, 31% moderate and 16% liberal."

Rasmussen also had 5% going for some other candidate. 4% of those will not actully vote third party, if history is any guide.

Today Gallup has it 47/45 Obama (registered) and Ramussen has it 45/45 (likely.) Ramussen also says: "Among voters who remain uncommitted (5%) to either of the major party candidates, 46% are conservative, 31% moderate and 16% liberal."

Rasmussen also had 5% going for some other candidate. 4% of those will not actully vote third party, if history is any guide.

The bottom line here is that 45-47% of the country are anti-American Marxists. Is there any other way to interpret these polls?

This election means fuck-all.

Here's an entire poll, questions and all, that make really interesting reading:

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-cont ... e-Poll.pdf

Here's an entire poll, questions and all, that make really interesting reading:

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-cont ... e-Poll.pdf

I'm not sure how much useful information comes from knowing things like "among independents, Obama is perceived as GM, while Mitt Romney is BMW."

I may simply have missed it, but I couldn't see whether they were polling adults, registered voters, or likely voters.

Here's an entire poll, questions and all, that make really interesting reading:

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-cont ... e-Poll.pdf

I'm not sure how much useful information comes from knowing things like "among independents, Obama is perceived as GM, while Mitt Romney is BMW."

I may simply have missed it, but I couldn't see whether they were polling adults, registered voters, or likely voters.

Purple Polls are always Likely Voters.

The thing that struck me the most is Romney's high negatives. It would be nice if he would start working on that, but all I hear is how bad the economy is. That's no secret to anyone who's looking. Those negatives are why Nero has a sound negative rating, yet he polls equal or ahead of Romney in most swing states.

IOW, the Republicams are in the boat they are in because of Romney (not that anyone else would be doing better). Romney's got to sell himself and put forth an attractive image and a great vision and he'd better get going.

Rasmussen has Romney back up by 2 points over Obama. I'm always looking for trends which might indicate something in the media is beginning to sway people. Right now it seems to be polling noise with Romney a slight average lead around a point or two.

Here's an entire poll, questions and all, that make really interesting reading:

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-cont ... e-Poll.pdf

I'm not sure how much useful information comes from knowing things like "among independents, Obama is perceived as GM, while Mitt Romney is BMW."

I may simply have missed it, but I couldn't see whether they were polling adults, registered voters, or likely voters.

It is "useful" in illustrating how incredibly fucking stupid so-called independents are.

I have slightly more respect for the communists who at least acknowledge they hate capitalism and the United States.

Here's an entire poll, questions and all, that make really interesting reading:

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-cont ... e-Poll.pdf

I'm not sure how much useful information comes from knowing things like "among independents, Obama is perceived as GM, while Mitt Romney is BMW."

I may simply have missed it, but I couldn't see whether they were polling adults, registered voters, or likely voters.

Without reading it, Trabant (for Obama) must not have been on the poll.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The one percentage point difference is within the survey's three point margin of error.

Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... tial-race/

Romney, Obama tied in Virginia

ccording to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are in a dead heat among Virginia’s voters, with each of them receiving 44 percent of the population’s favor. The pollsters note that this does, however, constitute a shift in Mitt Romney’s general direction over the past few months, and Virginians are starting to trust Romney more on economic issues ...

"... starting to trust Romney more on economic issues ..."

Romney, Obama tied in Virginia

ccording to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are in a dead heat among Virginia’s voters, with each of them receiving 44 percent of the population’s favor. The pollsters note that this does, however, constitute a shift in Mitt Romney’s general direction over the past few months, and Virginians are starting to trust Romney more on economic issues ...

"... starting to trust Romney more on economic issues ..."

The "rich guy hiding stuff in Swiss bank accounts" meme is strong.

Romney, Obama tied in Virginia

ccording to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are in a dead heat among Virginia’s voters, with each of them receiving 44 percent of the population’s favor. The pollsters note that this does, however, constitute a shift in Mitt Romney’s general direction over the past few months, and Virginians are starting to trust Romney more on economic issues ...

"... starting to trust Romney more on economic issues ..."

From July 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,673 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

registered voters = skews Dem

The Hill Poll: Voters blame president most for slow economic recovery
http://thehill.com/polls/239377-the-hil ... ad-economy

Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill. It found that 66 percent believe paltry job growth and slow economic recovery is the result of bad policy. Thirty-four percent say Obama is the most to blame, followed by 23 percent who say Congress is the culprit. Twenty percent point the finger at Wall Street, and 18 percent cite former President George W. Bush.
The results highlight the reelection challenge Obama faces amid dissatisfaction with his first-term performance on the economy. The poll, conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research, found 53 percent of voters say Obama has taken the wrong actions and has slowed the economy down. Forty-two percent said he has taken the right actions to revive the economy, while six percent said they were not sure.

42 % of idiots is about 30-40% too many.

Jay Cost, on correcting for bias in poll sampling:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/mor ... tml?page=1 :

A final point: Presidential job approval polls are usually reported among all adults, aged 18 or over. These tend to have an even larger skew toward the Democrats than registered voter polls. For instance, the CBS News / New York Times poll had a D+6 spread among registered voters, but a D+7 spread among all adults. This means that the job approval numbers are probably overstating Obama’s position by an even larger margin [than about 2.5-3% among registered voters due to consistent D oversampling -GS]. So, the CBS News / New York Times poll had Obama’s net approval at -2, suggesting that among the electorate it’s perhaps around -6. I’d link this back to my consistent argument that presidents rarely win a share of the electorate larger than their job approval to justify my sustained bearishness on Obama’s reelection prospects. I suspect that the Rasmussen poll on job approval is closest to the electorate’s true feelings, and that regularly shows a net disapproval around -5 points, a very bad position for any incumbent.
Here’s my bottom line. It is very difficult to model the turnout for a presidential election this far away from November. There are a lot of tough choices that pollsters must make, and it is not fair to single any pollster out for the decisions it ultimately goes with. Nevertheless, we can and should still be smart consumers of political polling. We need to keep the historical spread between the two sides in mind, and be cautious of polls that show a relatively wide Democratic advantage over the GOP. They are probably underestimating the GOP's electoral strength.

I'm not sure the article describes the exact method of bias-removal. At least it doesn't agree with the literature. (Not to say that any pollster does it right.)

I'm not sure the article describes the exact method of bias-removal. At least it doesn't agree with the literature. (Not to say that any pollster does it right.)

Nothing is exact there, except the actual vote count on election day [and even then, only if fraud-free]. It would suffice if one could remove most of the bias, so that what is left of it is less than 1 or 0.5%.

Sean Trende: To Move Polls, Romney Needs to Go Positive
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 14903.html
R&P.

Sean Trende: To Move Polls, Romney Needs to Go Positive
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 14903.html
R&P.

He should favor the ionized rather than the unionized.

Sean Trende: To Move Polls, Romney Needs to Go Positive
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 14903.html
R&P.

He should favor the ionized rather than the unionized.