The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

If it is close, my respect for the American people has a whole, will go down BIG time, and when it is all said and done... Ah hell, who knows, but WTF happened to my country, that a socialist asshole can even come close, let alone WIN the presidency in the first place?

I agree. But realize that 45% of the country wants European-style democratic socialism.

But I think that dearleader wants Soviet style socialism.

And I question whether European style socialism is even sustainable. How long could it have lasted without the capitalist economic engine of the US handy as a customer for their products?

Meanwhile in the Missouri Primary ...

U. S. Senator (3,424 of 3,428 Precincts Reported)

Code:

Candidate Name       Votes   % of Votes
Claire McCaskill    DEM         288,985   100%
Todd Akin           REP          217,240   36.0%
Sarah Steelman   REP           176,080   29.2%
John G. Brunner   REP           180,678   30.0%
...

John Brunner & Sarah Steelman (who had the Palin endorsement), got into a shit-slinging match, and Todd Akin skated on by to take the win.

Todd was helped with a left-handed complement by the McCaskill campaign calling him a “crusader against bigger government,” asserting that he wants to eliminate some federal agencies and privatize Social Security and noting that he promotes a “pro-family agenda” — before ending the commercial by claiming that Akin “is just too conservative for Missouri.”

AP: McCaskill, Akin vow contrasts in Mo. Senate race

Sounds to me that Todd Akin will do just fine.

If it is close, my respect for the American people has a whole, will go down BIG time, and when it is all said and done... Ah hell, who knows, but WTF happened to my country, that a socialist asshole can even come close, let alone WIN the presidency in the first place?

I agree. But realize that 45% of the country wants European-style democratic socialism.

But I think that dearleader wants Soviet style socialism.

And I question whether European style socialism is even sustainable. How long could it have lasted without the capitalist economic engine of the US handy as a customer for their products?

Good questions. Probably under very specific circumstances (small and homogenous population) it is sustainable.

It definitely isn't sustainable at the federal level.

The big problem is that Krugman and his ilk keep telling the masses that it is sustainable and the evil rich GOP is responsible for all the bad stuff that happens with the economy.

If it is close, my respect for the American people has a whole, will go down BIG time, and when it is all said and done... Ah hell, who knows, but WTF happened to my country, that a socialist asshole can even come close, let alone WIN the presidency in the first place?

I agree. But realize that 45% of the country wants European-style democratic socialism.

But I think that dearleader wants Soviet style socialism.

And I question whether European style socialism is even sustainable. How long could it have lasted without the capitalist economic engine of the US handy as a customer for their products?

Good questions. Probably under very specific circumstances (small and homogenous population) it is sustainable.

It definitely isn't sustainable at the federal level.

The big problem is that Krugman and his ilk keep telling the masses that it is sustainable and the evil rich GOP is responsible for all the bad stuff that happens with the economy.

Krugman seems to think that the moral purpose of an economy it to provide jobs, and that the economy will do this best under heavy taxation and close supervision by government...seems naive at best. Does he not understand that jobs cannot exist if they don't make money for the agency that offers them?

As an aside, some fairly knowledgeable people think that one of the ingredients for economic growth is a growing population. That may be true to some degree and I note that Japan does not have this. However, I also believe that Adam Smith's division of labor principle will work even with a static population.

Rasmussen is a three day rolling average; I'd watch it and see if he still up after 4 days -- if he is, it real, if not, it's probably noise.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 4 days makes something real. Noise is typically a single day event, but it can be longer -- it's all probabilities.

Rasmussen says it due to the "unexpectedly" better jobs number on Friday. He adds that now that people are looking deeper into the jobs report, they are realizing that it isn't as good as it seemed at first blush, and Obama's numbers are starting soften again. IOW, a temporary bump.

Rasmussen is a three day rolling average; I'd watch it and see if he still up after 4 days -- if he is, it real, if not, it's probably noise.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 4 days makes something real. Noise is typically a single day event, but it can be longer -- it's all probabilities.

Rasmussen says it due to the "unexpectedly" better jobs number on Friday. He adds that now that people are looking deeper into the jobs report, they are realizing that it isn't as good as it seemed at first blush, and Obama's numbers are starting soften again. IOW, a temporary bump.

Romney is now up by 4 in today's Rasmussen. And does anyone seriously believe that Virginia is a D+6 state now?

Rasmussen is a three day rolling average; I'd watch it and see if he still up after 4 days -- if he is, it real, if not, it's probably noise.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 4 days makes something real. Noise is typically a single day event, but it can be longer -- it's all probabilities.

Rasmussen says it due to the "unexpectedly" better jobs number on Friday. He adds that now that people are looking deeper into the jobs report, they are realizing that it isn't as good as it seemed at first blush, and Obama's numbers are starting soften again. IOW, a temporary bump.

Romney is now up by 4 in today's Rasmussen. And does anyone seriously believe that Virginia is a D+6 state now?

I'm not really convinced that opinion shifts that fast. I would attribute the spike more to sampling noise. I don't trust trends that aren't a few weeks long. That means I'll miss them until they are well established -- but what can you do.

Rasmussen is a three day rolling average; I'd watch it and see if he still up after 4 days -- if he is, it real, if not, it's probably noise.

I wouldn't go so far as to say 4 days makes something real. Noise is typically a single day event, but it can be longer -- it's all probabilities.

Rasmussen says it due to the "unexpectedly" better jobs number on Friday. He adds that now that people are looking deeper into the jobs report, they are realizing that it isn't as good as it seemed at first blush, and Obama's numbers are starting soften again. IOW, a temporary bump.

Romney is now up by 4 in today's Rasmussen. And does anyone seriously believe that Virginia is a D+6 state now?

It is entirely believable. Government workers have invaded Virginia. Can you blame them? Who would want to live in DC where you get to experience the consequences of their failed policies first hand?

I found this image of Rasmussen's 2008 tracking poll out on the interwebz. Making a copy here for safe keeping.

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

And just for reference, today's Rasmussen:

Looks like McCain was behind but close in the summer, got a convention bounce, and then people made up their minds in October with the deteriorating economic news.

Right now a bit of a role reversal with Zero slightly trailing Romney in the summer.

Romney Down by Nine as Conservatives Gripe
http://www.trevorloudon.com/2012/08/romney-down-by-nine-as-conservatives-gripe/

Romney Down by Nine as Conservatives Gripe
http://www.trevorloudon.com/2012/08/romney-down-by-nine-as-conservatives-gripe/

That FOX poll is an outliar.

Romney Down by Nine as Conservatives Gripe
http://www.trevorloudon.com/2012/08/romney-down-by-nine-as-conservatives-gripe/

What is that guy smoking? Romney should be down more be cause he did not publicly disown the CFA appreciation day? And I do believe the FoxNews poll is screwed up.

Today's Rasmussen graph doesn't match his numbers in the article text. Anyhow either way, Romney still up by about two.

Yesterday as well the Rasmussen graph diverged badly from the posted numbers but it looks fixed today. Romney still up by 3, Obazero still stuck around 44%. We should start to see the VP effect, if any, in the next day or two.

Another one for the puzzling "pollsters insist Romney gets all the popular votes, but Obama will get 350 electoral votes" mix: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/13/p ... rtual-tie/

Another one for the puzzling "pollsters insist Romney gets all the popular votes, but Obama will get 350 electoral votes" mix: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/13/p ... rtual-tie/

With the same D+7 split as 2008... and Romney up by 10 among independents. Obama has some problems: The youth vote is not as intense, and there is more GOP enthusiasm. With a D+3 split (likely case), Romney wins about on the order of Bush's 2004 win - we know by Wednesday morning that Obama is out of a job.

If it's a 50-50 split, like 2004 was, we could see a blowout.

Another one for the puzzling "pollsters insist Romney gets all the popular votes, but Obama will get 350 electoral votes" mix: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/13/p ... rtual-tie/

With the same D+7 split as 2008... and Romney up by 10 among independents. Obama has some problems: The youth vote is not as intense, and there is more GOP enthusiasm. With a D+3 split (likely case), Romney wins about on the order of Bush's 2004 win - we know by Wednesday morning that Obama is out of a job.

If it's a 50-50 split, like 2004 was, we could see a blowout.

My anecdata says there will be more R votes from previously apathetic people than they've had in awhile, maybe even since Reagan.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

This is the first daily update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan was introduced as Mitt Romney’s running mate on Saturday. The announcement so far has had little impact on the numbers. See tracking history. Among voters in the key swing state of Ohio, 51% have a favorable opinion of Ryan. Forty percent (40%) are now more likely to vote for Romney and 32% less likely. ...

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-ryan ... CsEsWNAZ8M

According to Zogby the Ryan pick helped Romney with younger voters and independents, two key battleground constituencies. "Romney saw a bump in support among 18-29 year olds with 41 percent saying they would vote for the ticket of Romney and Ryan," said Zogby. "More importantly, Romney and Ryan led Obama and Biden among independent voters 45 percent to 40 percent."

Added the pollsters: "If numbers like this hold, this could spell real trouble for the president who won with 66 percent of 18-29 year olds in 2008."

It's son of Zogby, btw, not the disgraced Zogby. Don't know anything about his methodology.

Still, if true, this is a huge swing. Contrast with 2008:

Voters in the 18 to 24 age group broke 68 percent for Obama to 30 percent for John McCain, according to the exit polling. Those in the 25 to 29 age bracket went 69 percent to 29 percent in Obama's favor.

I predict the gap will close even more by Nov. For all their leftism, young voters complain loudly and vocally about the SS/Medicare situation. They know they aren't getting any.

. For all their leftism, young voters complain loudly and vocally about the SS/Medicare situation. They know they aren't getting any.

Neither am I, dammit. Oh wait ,,,

Rasmussen: Florida: Romney 45%, Obama 43%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... _president

More than half — 54 percent — of those over 65 say Obamacare scares them more than Ryan’s plan, the poll from Rasmussen Reports shows. Only one in three believe the Ryan plan is more scary.

The figures show the older a person is the more likely they are to be worried by the Obama plan. For likely voters under 39, both plans scare them equally, for those between 40 and 64, Obama’s is the worse by a 47 to 41 percent margin.

The figures also show that Hispanics are far more worried than whites who are, in turn, more worried than blacks about Obamacare.

http://www.newsmax.com/US/Rasmussen-Flo ... /id/448808

It's really rather simple. As someone easing into Medicare, it's quite obvious that Obamacare will bankrupt the system, and services will be cut drastically.

Already the taxes on medical devices and products are making them unavailable to everyone except the rich. There are products used to stimulate bone growth that have all but disappeared.

Gallup Aug 10-16 rolling average registered voters: Romney 47%, Obama 45%. It has been the same for the last three days.