The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

NBC/Marist poll: Romney up 15 over Gingrich in Florida

Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.

Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided.

"The bottom line in all this is Romney's sitting in the driver's seat going into Tuesday," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, who conducted the poll.

If Romney pulls off a victory of that magnitude, he could be on a glide path to the nomination. But there are warning signs for the Republican Party that the primary has taken a toll on Romney and the rest of the GOP field. Each of the candidates struggles in a general-election matchup with President Barack Obama in this swing state, especially with independents.

...

There was a stark gender gap between Romney and Gingrich. Women said they preferred Romney by 47-26 percent over Gingrich. The gap is closer with men, but Romney leads with them as well, 38-29 percent.

This is why Newt will never win in the general election.

I'm not sure this is meaningful in a contest where the choice is not Romney/Gingrich.

Little Movement in Florida (Mitt 39%, Neut 32%, Santorum 14%, Paul 11%)

PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.' The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they'd already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he'd have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours. ...

Newt is closing the gap according to this poll taken Sunday night. He's trailing by 5 and could be surging just in time.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/ging ... /id/425901

NBC/Marist poll:

When I first saw this I was wondering if they had inadvertently dropped an "x".

Newt is closing the gap according to this poll taken Sunday night. He's trailing by 5 and could be surging just in time.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/ging ... /id/425901

Interesting. If true I speculate that the establishment piling on first had a depressive effect on Newt's support but then the sheer magnitude of it began to anger people because they began to see it as an attempt by the establishment to pick the candidate.

NBC/Marist poll:

When I first saw this I was wondering if they had inadvertently dropped an "x".

I think that whenever I see Marist.

NBC/Marist poll:

When I first saw this I was wondering if they had inadvertently dropped an "x".

There's nothing whatever inadvertent about dropping the "x."

Romney headed for Florida victory (Mittens 39% Neut 31% Santorum 15% Paul 11%)

PPP's tracking of the Florida Republican primary wraps up with Mitt Romney at 39%, Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 15%, and Ron Paul at 11%. Our three days of tracking found very little movement in the race: Romney was at 39-40% every day, Gingrich was at 31-32% every day, Santorum was at 14-15% every day, and Paul was at 9-11% every day.

The lack of movement in the final 72 hours of the campaign is a far cry from the dramatic shifts Florida Republicans made in their preferences over the last four months. In late September we found Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich by 20 points in the state. By late November, as he surged nationally, Gingrich had taken a 30 point led over Romney. But then our first poll in early January, after poor performances by Gingrich in Iowa and New Hampshire, found Romney back on top by 15 points. Riding a (short lived) wave of momentum off his South Carolina victory, Gingrich led our Florida poll last week by 5 points. By the end of the week the race had swung back to Romney and over the last three days his lead has been steady in the 7-8 point range.

One thing Romney did a great job of was getting his voters out early. With the third of the electorate who have already cast their ballots he leads 45-32. That means Gingrich would have to win election day voters by somewhere in the 6-8 point range to pull off the Florida upset, but we find that Romney still has a 36-30 advantage with those are waiting to vote tomorrow. ...

WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.


But the 2012 election is looking more like a replay of 2008 than a do-over.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.

The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.


But the 2012 election is looking more like a replay of 2008 than a do-over.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.

The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Whirled Nuts Daily claims 20% of GOP voters are leaning towards Obama? I find that extremely difficult to believe.

Not so good news for Romney, but better for Santorum - in Ohio.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... l_election

I think we are in for an extended period of crap.

WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.


But the 2012 election is looking more like a replay of 2008 than a do-over.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.
It should probably be larger. Combine those from the Eastern-Establishment who agree with Obama with the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Whirled Nuts Daily claims 20% of GOP voters are leaning towards Obama? I find that extremely difficult to believe.

WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.


But the 2012 election is looking more like a replay of 2008 than a do-over.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.
It should probably be larger. Combine those from the Eastern-Establishment who agree with Obama with the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Whirled Nuts Daily claims 20% of GOP voters are leaning towards Obama? I find that extremely difficult to believe.

the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The "Religious Right" may not like the current crop of GOP candidates, but it does not follow from this that they will "support Obama in November".

WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.


But the 2012 election is looking more like a replay of 2008 than a do-over.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.
It should probably be larger. Combine those from the Eastern-Establishment who agree with Obama with the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Whirled Nuts Daily claims 20% of GOP voters are leaning towards Obama? I find that extremely difficult to believe.

the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The "Religious Right" may not like the current crop of GOP candidates, but it does not follow from this that they will "support Obama in November".

They stayed home in 2006 (and 2010) in the Dallas area (according to pre-election polls, exit-polls, post-election polls, and demographic analysis.) The GOP which had held all the county offices for some 20 years lost every contested office without the Democrats running a single political ad. Similarly in NM, I watched the Religious Right lose precinct control; they skipped the general election in protest (or more likely petulance).

WASHINGTON – For critics of Barack Obama, 2012 has been portrayed as a do-or-die year for the country – an election that will determine whether America stays on the road to European-style socialism or veers right to reclaim its positions as the most vibrant economy in the world and the home of individual liberty.


But the 2012 election is looking more like a replay of 2008 than a do-over.

The latest WND/Wenzel Poll shows none of the current crop of Republican presidential candidates has solidified the base of the party, with one in five GOP voters leaning toward support of Obama in November.
It should probably be larger. Combine those from the Eastern-Establishment who agree with Obama with the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The results are from the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies. The poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2012, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.44 percentage points.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Whirled Nuts Daily claims 20% of GOP voters are leaning towards Obama? I find that extremely difficult to believe.

the Religious Right who wish to punish the US into electing a TRVE CONSERVATIVE next time.

The "Religious Right" may not like the current crop of GOP candidates, but it does not follow from this that they will "support Obama in November".

They stayed home in 2006 (and 2010) in the Dallas area (according to pre-election polls, exit-polls, post-election polls, and demographic analysis.) The GOP which had held all the county offices for some 20 years lost every contested office without the Democrats running a single political ad. Similarly in NM, I watched the Religious Right lose precinct control; they skipped the general election in protest (or more likely petulance).

That may very well be, however the poll claims 1 in 5 GOP voters are leaning toward "supporting Obama in November". I am sure if your Religious Right friends in Dallas were questioned by these pollsters, they certainly wouldn't answer in the affirmative if asked whether they will vote for Obama (regardless of the eventual consequences of their staying home).

Santorum surges into the lead

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That's a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney. ...

Santorum surges into the lead

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That's a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney. ...

We are in big trouble.

This will get interesting.

BTW, when will Romney's money run out?

This will get interesting.

BTW, when will Romney's money run out?

How much has he personally "loaned" to his campaign already?

This will get interesting.

BTW, when will Romney's money run out?

How much has he personally "loaned" to his campaign already?

According to this article from about a month ago, not a cent.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/mitt-r ... r-of-2011/

So who are the deep pockets?

He or his minions spent $20 million in Florida.

I know how some people here feel about Romney, but Santorum is completely, totally and utterly unelectable. The GOP is waving the white flag if he is the nominee.

I know how some people here feel about Romney, but Santorum is completely, totally and utterly unelectable. The GOP is waving the white flag if he is the nominee.

Rumor-TOS sez Romney won the CPAC poll with 38%
... the other contestants:

Rick 31%
Newt 15%
Paul 12%

I know how some people here feel about Romney, but Santorum is completely, totally and utterly unelectable. The GOP is waving the white flag if he is the nominee.

You know, you have said this a few times as well as Hutch and probably some others. Do you have evidence for this or are you just trying to shape the debate? Several have made a case (pretty good one, IMO) that Romney is unelectable and Newt too. If that's the case then no Republican is electable and we should all just throw up our hands and cry for 5 years.

You want to produce some evidence for this assertion?