The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

And now for the big WTF.

Rasmussen reports Nero's disapprove at a near record +9 (54-45 disapprove-approve, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ex_history ).

If he is that much disliked how can he be polling so well against the Republican hopefuls.

Could it be the quality of those hopefuls....?

... or MSNBC has their tongue firmly inserted into Obammy's anus. Just a thought ...

Rasmussen reports Nero's disapprove at a near record +9 (54-45 disapprove-approve,
If he is that much disliked how can he be polling so well against the Republican hopefuls.

Rassy polls likely voters. You have to read the other polls details to find out if they screen for that. Some include registered voters. And some include all adults.

And now for the big WTF.

Rasmussen reports Nero's disapprove at a near record +9 (54-45 disapprove-approve, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ex_history ).

If he is that much disliked how can he be polling so well against the Republican hopefuls.

Could it be the quality of those hopefuls....?

Nah

He's only +@ on Romney, and at his approval level (45-43). He's at +4 for Santorum, and 1 point above his approval (46-42). The trend is looking good as well - Obama's down a bit from last week.

IT may just be the GOP primary kinda holding things down. But keep in mind... Obama's not in good shape. He's an incumbent, he's had the benefit of the distraction over Slutgate, and he's only getting 45% in a head-to-head matchup with Romney, and 46% against Santorum?

Rasmussen reports Nero's disapprove at a near record +9 (54-45 disapprove-approve,
If he is that much disliked how can he be polling so well against the Republican hopefuls.

Rassy polls likely voters. You have to read the other polls details to find out if they screen for that. Some include registered voters. And some include all adults.

That fucks up the averages...

From registered voters to likely voters creates a 2-3% swing in favor of the Dem. I'd expect another shift - say another 2-3% from adults to registered voters.

And now for the big WTF.

Rasmussen reports Nero's disapprove at a near record +9 (54-45 disapprove-approve, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ex_history ).

If he is that much disliked how can he be polling so well against the Republican hopefuls.

Could it be the quality of those hopefuls....?

Nah

He's only +@ on Romney, and at his approval level (45-43). He's at +4 for Santorum, and 1 point above his approval (46-42). The trend is looking good as well - Obama's down a bit from last week.

IT may just be the GOP primary kinda holding things down. But keep in mind... Obama's not in good shape. He's an incumbent, he's had the benefit of the distraction over Slutgate, and he's only getting 45% in a head-to-head matchup with Romney, and 46% against Santorum?

Don't select, please. Nationally Nero is down 9 in approval. Nationally Nero is up 2-4 (Rasmussen) over Santorum and Romney and Paul, more over Gingrich.

BUT, in swing states that the Republicans must win, he beats every one of them and is at or near 50% in every one. So, what trend are you looking at?

And now for the big WTF.

Rasmussen reports Nero's disapprove at a near record +9 (54-45 disapprove-approve, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ex_history ).

If he is that much disliked how can he be polling so well against the Republican hopefuls.

Could it be the quality of those hopefuls....?

Nah

He's only +@ on Romney, and at his approval level (45-43). He's at +4 for Santorum, and 1 point above his approval (46-42). The trend is looking good as well - Obama's down a bit from last week.

IT may just be the GOP primary kinda holding things down. But keep in mind... Obama's not in good shape. He's an incumbent, he's had the benefit of the distraction over Slutgate, and he's only getting 45% in a head-to-head matchup with Romney, and 46% against Santorum?

Don't select, please. Nationally Nero is down 9 in approval. Nationally Nero is up 2-4 (Rasmussen) over Santorum and Romney and Paul, more over Gingrich.

BUT, in swing states that the Republicans must win, he beats every one of them and is at or near 50% in every one. So, what trend are you looking at?

I've looked as Rasmussen's national tracking.

Obama's approval has gone down from 48% on Friday to 45% today.

The head-tohead matchups changed too:
Friday: Obama 48-42 over Romney, 46-43 over Santorum
Today: Obama 45-43 over Romney, 46-42 over Santorum

Now, when Obama's approval is 48, 46, 46, and 45 over the last four days on a three-day rolling average (in essence), I'm willing to bet that his numbers drop a little more.

And if he's only got a 45% approval rating, and only draws 45% in a head-to-head with Romney, I don't see him winning over the undecided voters. Yeah, Harry Reid pulled out Nevada, but Mitt Romney ain't no Sharron Angle.

Again, I want to get these primaries over and see how Gary Johnson polls (see my new avatar). Has there ever been this much disgust with both major parties going into an election in modern history? I think the time is prime for a third party contender.

Again, I want to get these primaries over and see how Gary Johnson polls (see my new avatar). Has there ever been this much disgust with both major parties going into an election in modern history? I think the time is prime for a third party contender.

Today, nationally:

Nero v Romney - 48-42, Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - 48-41, Nero +7

So much for Hutch's hopeful trens. National polls are not much good, only polls in the battlegrounds are important and as of this post, they don't look good for any Republican.

"We are dead".

Today, nationally:

Nero v Romney - 48-42, Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - 48-41, Nero +7

So much for Hutch's hopeful trens. National polls are not much good, only polls in the battlegrounds are important and as of this post, they don't look good for any Republican.

"We are dead".

Today's did seem a bit high... I want to see the long-term trends. Obama's still only pulling 45-48% approval.

I do not think we're dead yet, but we DO need to stop the internal fighting and start targeting Obama.

I think a Romney-Santorum, Romney-Toomey, or Romney-Rubio ticket would be very strong.

I think a Romney-Santorum

I don't know if I can hold my nose that tightly.

I think a Romney-Santorum

I don't know if I can hold my nose that tightly.

Unfortunately, I think it's the most likely outcome, particularly if the vote is tight today. As long as Santorum were willing to play second fiddle to someone who he may not think is a Christian.

I think a Romney-Santorum

I don't know if I can hold my nose that tightly.

Sweater Vest Boy would give Biden a run for dumbest and/or inappropriate comments made by VP. Other than that, he would probably be harmless in that position.

New Rasmussen Numbers:
Romney up 48-43
Santorum up 46-45

Obama Approval/Disapproval: 44-54 -10

More important, Rasmussen shows Nero's disapprove at +10 - I don't remember it ever being that high.

But, not to throw cold water on the party, someone point me to a poll that shows any Republican beating Nero in any of the battleground states with the possible exception of Florida. Then I'll celebrate.

Santorum wins Kansas big. Newt/Romney tie for second:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03 ... or-romney/

More important, Rasmussen shows Nero's disapprove at +10 - I don't remember it ever being that high.

But, not to throw cold water on the party, someone point me to a poll that shows any Republican beating Nero in any of the battleground states with the possible exception of Florida. Then I'll celebrate.

Obama is at 46% in combined OH, VA, FL, NC polling, per Rasmussen (Romney trails with 42, but Obama is below 50%):
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... our_states

Obama now trails Romney by SIX nationally (48-42), and remains at 44% approval:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

Given how well the polls predicted the Alabama and Mississippi results, I think we should stop laughing at the attention paid to the polls.

Romney’s delegate lead grows

Delegate count (Hawaii & Am Samoa caucuses)
Mittens 494 (+18) = 512
Ricky S. 251 (+4) = 255
Noot 131
Ron Paul 48

Willard needs to win ~46% of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination outright. If the non-Romneys can get ~52% between 'em, "Hellooo broikered convention!"

Poll numbers for your edification:

PA Santorum +14
NC Romney +4
TX Santorum +8
Pennsylvania is sort of proportional. North Carolina is proportional. Texas is proportional.

In Florida (Nero at 45.5 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +2

In Pennsylvania (Nero at 47, average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - Nero +1
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +13
Nero v Paul - Nero +5

In North Carolina (Nero at 49 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +5
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +9
Nero v Paul - Nero +7

The state numbers are disturbing, since these states must be in play for any Republican to win.

Poll numbers for your edification:

PA Santorum +14
NC Romney +4
TX Santorum +8
Pennsylvania is sort of proportional. North Carolina is proportional. Texas is proportional.

In Florida (Nero at 45.5 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +2

In Pennsylvania (Nero at 47, average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - Nero +1
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +13
Nero v Paul - Nero +5

In North Carolina (Nero at 49 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +5
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +9
Nero v Paul - Nero +7

The state numbers are disturbing, since these states must be in play for any Republican to win.

Are those numbers based on likely voters, registered voters or adults?

Poll numbers for your edification:

PA Santorum +14
NC Romney +4
TX Santorum +8
Pennsylvania is sort of proportional. North Carolina is proportional. Texas is proportional.

In Florida (Nero at 45.5 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +2

In Pennsylvania (Nero at 47, average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - Nero +1
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +13
Nero v Paul - Nero +5

In North Carolina (Nero at 49 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +5
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +9
Nero v Paul - Nero +7

The state numbers are disturbing, since these states must be in play for any Republican to win.

The [D]s are already united, the [R]s are not yet. Once there is the nominee, the non-obamoths would need to coalesce around and behind him [or her, whoever emerges from the convention]. That's why "I hate the very thought of romney/sanctorum/gingrich/paul/perry/palin/X/... and rather than vote for him or her I would vote obaa, third party, or sit home" mindset has to be stomped out.

Poll numbers for your edification:

PA Santorum +14
NC Romney +4
TX Santorum +8
Pennsylvania is sort of proportional. North Carolina is proportional. Texas is proportional.

In Florida (Nero at 45.5 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +2

In Pennsylvania (Nero at 47, average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - Nero +1
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +13
Nero v Paul - Nero +5

In North Carolina (Nero at 49 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +5
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +9
Nero v Paul - Nero +7

The state numbers are disturbing, since these states must be in play for any Republican to win.

Are those numbers based on likely voters, registered voters or adults?

FL numbers, Rasmussen, LV
PA and NC, RV. At this point in time I don't think it's worth rooting through the details to look for glimmers of hope. Senor Slob is right, once there is a Rep candidate, these numbers will take some kind of a bounce/sag, depending

Poll numbers for your edification:

PA Santorum +14
NC Romney +4
TX Santorum +8
Pennsylvania is sort of proportional. North Carolina is proportional. Texas is proportional.

In Florida (Nero at 45.5 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +2

In Pennsylvania (Nero at 47, average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +6
Nero v Santorum - Nero +1
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +13
Nero v Paul - Nero +5

In North Carolina (Nero at 49 average)
Nero v Romney - Nero +3
Nero v Santorum - Nero +5
Nero v Gingrich - Nero +9
Nero v Paul - Nero +7

The state numbers are disturbing, since these states must be in play for any Republican to win.

Are those numbers based on likely voters, registered voters or adults?

FL numbers, Rasmussen, LV
PA and NC, RV. At this point in time I don't think it's worth rooting through the details to look for glimmers of hope. Senor Slob is right, once there is a Rep candidate, these numbers will take some kind of a bounce/sag, depending

It's a time like this when I really miss the Freeper known as Common Tator - he was a wealth of knowledge on so many fronts.

If Obama is only pulling 49 and 47 in registered voters, the usual difference is about 2-3 points. So Obama's approval among LVs in NC and PA is in the 46-47 range (for NC) and the 44-45 range (in PA).

Also, this also means that Obama is probably up only 1 or 2 in PA, and breaking even in NC. He didn't have much margin in NC in `08. Same for IN, IIRC.

About a week ago (see upthread), Nero was at a +10 Disapprove. Now, he's at a +1 Approve, an 11 point change. Since both are Rasmussen, I assume the methodology is the same. Therefore the American voting public are really confused (or fucked up - take your pick).

Every pollster out there must be pulling out their remaining hair.