The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

Obama is far behind his 2008 pace with Jewish voters, new polling shows. According to Michael Barone at the Washington Examiner:

The latest survey of Jewish Americans, conducted March 14-27 by a firm called Knowledge Networks for the American Jewish Committee, shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 61%-28% margin. That’s significantly behind Obama’s 78%-21% margin over John McCain among Jewish voters in the 2008 exit poll. …

Obama gets 72% of the votes of those most concerned with the health care issue, according to the current AJC survey, and 62% among those most concerned about the economy. But Romney leads Obama among those Jews whose major concern was national security issues (44%-42%) and U.S.-Israel relations (44%-42%). Clearly Obama is losing some Jewish voters on foreign policy issues.

http://freebeacon.com/jewish-voters-leaving-obama/

Obama is far behind his 2008 pace with Jewish voters, new polling shows. According to Michael Barone at the Washington Examiner:

The latest survey of Jewish Americans, conducted March 14-27 by a firm called Knowledge Networks for the American Jewish Committee, shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 61%-28% margin. That’s significantly behind Obama’s 78%-21% margin over John McCain among Jewish voters in the 2008 exit poll. …

Obama gets 72% of the votes of those most concerned with the health care issue, according to the current AJC survey, and 62% among those most concerned about the economy. But Romney leads Obama among those Jews whose major concern was national security issues (44%-42%) and U.S.-Israel relations (44%-42%). Clearly Obama is losing some Jewish voters on foreign policy issues.

http://freebeacon.com/jewish-voters-leaving-obama/

I suppose that Jewish voters might flip a state like Florida if it is really close, but as much as I think Jewish voters should be supporting anybody but Nero, I just do not think they are a big enough demographic group to be important nationally.

Obama is far behind his 2008 pace with Jewish voters, new polling shows. According to Michael Barone at the Washington Examiner:

The latest survey of Jewish Americans, conducted March 14-27 by a firm called Knowledge Networks for the American Jewish Committee, shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 61%-28% margin. That’s significantly behind Obama’s 78%-21% margin over John McCain among Jewish voters in the 2008 exit poll. …

Obama gets 72% of the votes of those most concerned with the health care issue, according to the current AJC survey, and 62% among those most concerned about the economy. But Romney leads Obama among those Jews whose major concern was national security issues (44%-42%) and U.S.-Israel relations (44%-42%). Clearly Obama is losing some Jewish voters on foreign policy issues.

http://freebeacon.com/jewish-voters-leaving-obama/

I suppose that Jewish voters might flip a state like Florida if it is really close, but as much as I think Jewish voters should be supporting anybody but Nero, I just do not think they are a big enough demographic group to be important nationally.

The Florida Jewish vote is critical for the Dems. I expect Obama will be making several trips there to try and reverse the trend.

In Florida, Romney +1, 46-45 (Likely Voters). Weak but positive.

Which way do Computer Science majors vote?

In Virginia, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 51-43.

Bad, bad, bad in a necessary state.

Still waiting to hear why I should be optimistic about this election.

In Virginia, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 51-43.

Bad, bad, bad in a necessary state.

Still waiting to hear why I should be optimistic about this election.

Right now, the only thing you can hope for is that people start waking up as we get closer to the election.

YMMV

In North Carolina, Nero +4, (Registered Voters), 47-43. Undecideds would have to break 80-20 for Romney if this holds. Again, another state required for Romney, and another swing state where Nero currently holds a lead outside the margin of error.

For those of you who are they prayin' kind, don't wait until October.

...For those of you who are they prayin' kind, don't wait until October.

And that's only if nobody in Zero's campaign is bright enough to notice that "Slim Shady" and "Mitt Romney" have the same number of syllables, or if Eminem is a Republican...

I love all these fucking poll numbers posted here without a fucking link.

I love all these fucking poll numbers posted here without a fucking link.

Sorry, but I don't feel like supplying everything. Check out Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ . Almost everything I find can be found there. I am merely trying to supply a running poll commentary. I personally don't think any one poll right now is worth much, but when you look at the trends, well........

I love all these fucking poll numbers posted here without a fucking link.

Sorry, but I don't feel like supplying everything. Check out Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ . Almost everything I find can be found there. I am merely trying to supply a running poll commentary. I personally don't think any one poll right now is worth much, but when you look at the trends, well........

Who the pollster is kinda matters a lot. Some (Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP) tend to be very accurate and solid. Others, like PPP and Survey USA, tend to oversample Dems or use registered voters as opposed to likely voters in their samples.

That National Journal poll showing Obama up by 47-39? It was 1004 ADULTS, not registered voters, not likely voters, just adults. That probably skewed the sample by about 5-6 points.

And the partisan breakdown also will matter: The 2008 exit polling showed a D+7 turnout nationwide, which was the largest Dem advantage in years - and not likely to be repeated. Some of these polls showing an Obama rebound have used samples that are D+9 or D+11. Hmmm... sounds like some folks are stacking the deck trying to demoralize one side in the election.

I love all these fucking poll numbers posted here without a fucking link.

Sorry, but I don't feel like supplying everything. Check out Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ . Almost everything I find can be found there. I am merely trying to supply a running poll commentary. I personally don't think any one poll right now is worth much, but when you look at the trends, well........

Who the pollster is kinda matters a lot. Some (Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP) tend to be very accurate and solid. Others, like PPP and Survey USA, tend to oversample Dems or use registered voters as opposed to likely voters in their samples.

That National Journal poll showing Obama up by 47-39? It was 1004 ADULTS, not registered voters, not likely voters, just adults. That probably skewed the sample by about 5-6 points.

And the partisan breakdown also will matter: The 2008 exit polling showed a D+7 turnout nationwide, which was the largest Dem advantage in years - and not likely to be repeated. Some of these polls showing an Obama rebound have used samples that are D+9 or D+11. Hmmm... sounds like some folks are stacking the deck trying to demoralize one side in the election.

First, I am not capable of picking apart any poll and putting it down (I doubt too many DCers can do it - maybe Doc Stoc has the statistical prowess). In the past, PPP has tended to lean right, even though it is a Dem organization. Why? I neither know or car. About half the polls I post are Rasmussen. And it's impossible this early to know what it will be like in October. I'm looking for trends, not absolute numbers. So get your fingers out of your ears and open your eyes. But if you are in one of these battleground states, start busting your butts now.

As I said, I report you deride. Simply because you may not think a polling group fits your requirements, doesn't mean that one poll is not accurate. All the polling groups hit some, and even Rasmussen can be way off (like Prince Harry in 2010).

Shrug.

:lol:

First, I am not capable of picking apart any poll and putting it down (I doubt too many DCers can do it - maybe Doc Stoc has the statistical prowess). In the past, PPP has tended to lean right, even though it is a Dem organization. Why? I neither know or car. About half the polls I post are Rasmussen. And it's impossible this early to know what it will be like in October. I'm looking for trends, not absolute numbers. So get your fingers out of your ears and open your eyes. But if you are in one of these battleground states, start busting your butts now.

As I said, I report you deride. Simply because you may not think a polling group fits your requirements, doesn't mean that one poll is not accurate. All the polling groups hit some, and even Rasmussen can be way off (like Prince Harry in 2010).

Shrug.

Just looking for links so I can go there and pick the poll apart myself. It's not a lot to ask.

Just looking for links so I can go there and pick the poll apart myself. It's not a lot to ask.

The rant I chopped off is merely rationalization. Its author also has a habit of posting urls with no excerpts, which has been commented on in the past. He's too lazy to post content on one hand and too lazy to post sources on the other. Laziness is at the core here. Everything else is rationalization.

You guys are a lot of fun. I used to post links with little commentary and you got upset necause I left out the commentary. Didn't want to go to the link and actually read it. Now you don't want the commentary, but the link. I provided an appropriate link above, but I guess it's not enough. Dog - tail. Insatiable.

Don't read 'em. Shrug

You guys are a lot of fun. I used to post links with little commentary and you got upset necause I left out the commentary. Didn't want to go to the link and actually read it. Now you don't want the commentary, but the link. I provided an appropriate link above, but I guess it's not enough. Dog - tail. Insatiable.

Not quite. The norm is to post commentary and a link. What you deem as an insatiable demand is merely what, as form and courtesy, everyone else does routinely. You're just lazy.

You guys are a lot of fun. I used to post links with little commentary and you got upset necause I left out the commentary. Didn't want to go to the link and actually read it. Now you don't want the commentary, but the link. I provided an appropriate link above, but I guess it's not enough. Dog - tail. Insatiable.

Not quite. The norm is to post commentary and a link. What you deem as an insatiable demand is merely what, as form and courtesy, everyone else does routinely. You're just lazy.

\

Snort. I realize that there are many different kinds of people here. Some need their hands held. OK.

You guys are a lot of fun. I used to post links with little commentary and you got upset necause I left out the commentary. Didn't want to go to the link and actually read it. Now you don't want the commentary, but the link. I provided an appropriate link above, but I guess it's not enough. Dog - tail. Insatiable.

Not quite. The norm is to post commentary and a link. What you deem as an insatiable demand is merely what, as form and courtesy, everyone else does routinely. You're just lazy.

\

Snort. I realize that there are many different kinds of people here. Some need their hands held. OK.

I trust your numbers. But perhaps maybe in the future just write the name of the polling outfit. Or should we assume everything is from RCP?

You guys are a lot of fun. I used to post links with little commentary and you got upset necause I left out the commentary. Didn't want to go to the link and actually read it. Now you don't want the commentary, but the link. I provided an appropriate link above, but I guess it's not enough. Dog - tail. Insatiable.

Not quite. The norm is to post commentary and a link. What you deem as an insatiable demand is merely what, as form and courtesy, everyone else does routinely. You're just lazy.

\

Snort. I realize that there are many different kinds of people here. Some need their hands held. OK.

I trust your numbers. But perhaps maybe in the future just write the name of the polling outfit. Or should we assume everything is from RCP?

While I get numbers from lots of places, they all end up at RCP. It's a good clearinghouse for such things.

In Nevada, Nero +8, 52-44, Rasmussen (likely Voters). There's no way to spin this one. Link above.

2012 Electoral Map: Poll Version

The map on this page displays the electoral forecast based on 2012 state-level polling. Where no polling is available, the spreads are currently based on 2008 actual results. Where only one poll is available, we use that. This will occasionally yield some outlier results (e.g., SC as toss-up, IL only leaning Obama) that may quickly change once polling becomes more regular. Where multiple polls are available for a state, it is generally an average of the most recent poll from each pollster, although older polls may be dropped.

2012 Electoral Map: Poll Version

The map on this page displays the electoral forecast based on 2012 state-level polling. Where no polling is available, the spreads are currently based on 2008 actual results. Where only one poll is available, we use that. This will occasionally yield some outlier results (e.g., SC as toss-up, IL only leaning Obama) that may quickly change once polling becomes more regular. Where multiple polls are available for a state, it is generally an average of the most recent poll from each pollster, although older polls may be dropped.

Virginia, NC and SC are all toss ups. Texas is no longer "safe" for the GOP, it simply "leans" toward the GOP. WA and OR are deep blue states.

Is this the result of a major demographic shift within the last 20 years?

There's no way to spin this one.

I think this is what is rubbing some people the wrong way. We (as far as I can see) aren't interested in "spinning", we're merely interested in accuracy. If the news is bad, the news is bad.

For the last month. Here is a compilation of polls, mostly for swing states (PA, OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, IA, CO, AZ, NV), but I've included afew others. If there is more than one poll, I have averaged them and the number is in parentheses. If I've left out a state, it's because I have not found one over the last month.

NV - Nero +8 (2), 51-43
IN - Romney +9, 49-40
OH - Nero +5(2), 45-40
MI - Nero +4, 47-43
FL - Nero +1 (3), 46-45
VA - tie (3), 45-45
NC - Nero +4 (3), 47-43
NM - Nero +14, 54-40
AZ - tie (2), 41-41
CO - Nero +13, 53-40
MO - Romney +3, 48-45
NH - Nero +7(3), 48-41

Romney has to win most of those states to win the election. If Nero wins Fl and Pa, he wins.

Man, I hope people start waking up.