The Vastly Underimproved Poll Thread

Geraghty sent me this today:

Breaking from Quinnipiac this morning:

Riding the voter perception that he is as good as or better than President Barack Obama at fixing the economy, Republican challenger Mitt Romney catches up with the president in Florida and Ohio, two critical swing states, while the president opens an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

Florida: Romney with 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent, too close to call;
Ohio: Obama with 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent, too close to call;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 47 - 39 percent.

More meat:

In Wisconsin, Nero +9 (Registered Voters), 51-42
In Montana, Romney +5 (Registered Voters), 48-43
In Ohio, Nero +2 (Registered Voters), 44-42
In Florida, Romney +1 (Registered Voters), 44-43
In Pennsylvania, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 47-39
In Nevada, Nero +9 (Likely Voters), 52-44

The news out of PA and NV is not good, although there are quite a few "undecideds" in PA. The others are what you might expect (WI, although I hoped that WI might flip). Montana should be Rep. FL and OH are nail biters with high undecideds.

YMMV

NV is a bit wide, but I am seeing Obama averaging 45% in the big swing states of OH, FL, and PA.

In the "Core Four" state poll by Rasmussen (FL, VA, NC, OH), Obama is pulling 46%.

The data over the last two days on the economy (below-expected job numbers, the new service-sector numbers), indicates it is about to slow down a bit. Bad news for folks seeking jobs, but the good news is that it will benefit Romney, because a slow economy is in his wheelhouse.

More meat:

In Wisconsin, Nero +9 (Registered Voters), 51-42
In Montana, Romney +5 (Registered Voters), 48-43
In Ohio, Nero +2 (Registered Voters), 44-42
In Florida, Romney +1 (Registered Voters), 44-43
In Pennsylvania, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 47-39
In Nevada, Nero +9 (Likely Voters), 52-44

The news out of PA and NV is not good, although there are quite a few "undecideds" in PA. The others are what you might expect (WI, although I hoped that WI might flip). Montana should be Rep. FL and OH are nail biters with high undecideds.

YMMV

NV is a bit wide, but I am seeing Obama averaging 45% in the big swing states of OH, FL, and PA.

In the "Core Four" state poll by Rasmussen (FL, VA, NC, OH), Obama is pulling 46%.

The data over the last two days on the economy (below-expected job numbers, the new service-sector numbers), indicates it is about to slow down a bit. Bad news for folks seeking jobs, but the good news is that it will benefit Romney, because a slow economy is in his wheelhouse.

I appreciate your optimism. I really do. I just don't think it is justified. According to this site:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
Nero needs just 17 EV at this point in time from any of the following in any combination: AZ-11, CO-9, IA-6, MO-10, OH-18, NH-4, VA-13, NC-15, FL-29. He's already far ahead in CO, NH and IA (old poll) - 19.

Objectively, would you rather have Nero's job or Romney's? Another month from now, I'm sure things will change. Let's hope they don't get worse.

I don't know what use a national poll is for a presidential election.

Rasmussen says that job approval on election day is a good predictor of the president's vote.

Rassy knows a thing or two about polling.

And by the way, if Obama loses in November you are in for such a pranging ....

I don't know what use a national poll is for a presidential election.

Rasmussen says that job approval on election day is a good predictor of the president's vote.

Rassy knows a thing or two about polling.

And by the way, if Obama loses in November you are in for such a pranging ....

All I'm saying is that, right now, things don't look good for Romney. I hope they change, but I wouldn't bet on it either.

I don't know what use a national poll is for a presidential election.

Rasmussen says that job approval on election day is a good predictor of the president's vote.

Rassy knows a thing or two about polling.

And by the way, if Obama loses in November you are in for such a pranging ....

All I'm saying is that, right now, things don't look good for Romney. I hope they change, but I wouldn't bet on it either.

Romney hasn't really campaigned yet outside of the primaries. Independents haven't had a real chance to hear what he's had to say. All they have really heard so far is what sour grapes-types like Newt and Santorum have said.

I don't know what use a national poll is for a presidential election.

Rasmussen says that job approval on election day is a good predictor of the president's vote.

Rassy knows a thing or two about polling.

And by the way, if Obama loses in November you are in for such a pranging ....

All I'm saying is that, right now, things don't look good for Romney. I hope they change, but I wouldn't bet on it either.

Romney hasn't really campaigned yet outside of the primaries. Independents haven't had a real chance to hear what he's had to say. All they have really heard so far is what sour grapes-types like Newt and Santorum have said.

And the MSM is not covering Romney all that much. But they sure are covering Obama's travels and photo ops.

More meat:

In Wisconsin, Nero +9 (Registered Voters), 51-42
In Montana, Romney +5 (Registered Voters), 48-43
In Ohio, Nero +2 (Registered Voters), 44-42
In Florida, Romney +1 (Registered Voters), 44-43
In Pennsylvania, Nero +8 (Registered Voters), 47-39
In Nevada, Nero +9 (Likely Voters), 52-44

The news out of PA and NV is not good, although there are quite a few "undecideds" in PA. The others are what you might expect (WI, although I hoped that WI might flip). Montana should be Rep. FL and OH are nail biters with high undecideds.

YMMV

NV is a bit wide, but I am seeing Obama averaging 45% in the big swing states of OH, FL, and PA.

In the "Core Four" state poll by Rasmussen (FL, VA, NC, OH), Obama is pulling 46%.

The data over the last two days on the economy (below-expected job numbers, the new service-sector numbers), indicates it is about to slow down a bit. Bad news for folks seeking jobs, but the good news is that it will benefit Romney, because a slow economy is in his wheelhouse.

I appreciate your optimism. I really do. I just don't think it is justified. According to this site:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
Nero needs just 17 EV at this point in time from any of the following in any combination: AZ-11, CO-9, IA-6, MO-10, OH-18, NH-4, VA-13, NC-15, FL-29. He's already far ahead in CO, NH and IA (old poll) - 19.

Objectively, would you rather have Nero's job or Romney's? Another month from now, I'm sure things will change. Let's hope they don't get worse.

Well, I need more than what you're providing on this thread. For instance, Ed Morrissey had some more details on those Quinnipiac polls you posted earlier:

The demographic composition is another problem. The D/R/I in Florida is 31/28/37, in Ohio 34/26/34, and in Pennsylvania 36/29/30. Only Pennsylvania’s looks remotely predictive. The CNN exit polls in 2008 — a banner year for Obama — put Florida at 37/34/29, Ohio at 39/31/30, and Pennsylvania at 44/37/18. In 2010, Florida was even-up at 36/36/28, while Ohio was 36/37/28 and Pennsylvania at 40/37/23. Republicans are consistently underweighted in these Q-polls. Obama is probably in even more trouble than the numbers above indicate.

(emphasis added)
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/03/r ... ate-polls/

Now, I can tell you off the bat that when they take a best-case turnout scenario for Obama, and Obama's not even able to break 50% in any of the polls among registered voters, it's not bleak.

And this is why we need to know WHO took the poll, what the party breakdown was, and whether its registered or likely voters. Because knowing that Quinnipiac underweighs Republicans is helpful.

It’s been more than 50 years since a candidate has won the White House without carrying at least two of the three swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and a new poll shows Mitt Romney neck and neck with President Obama in two of them.

Romney, who trailed Obama 49% to 42% in Florida and 47% to 41% in Ohio in late March, is now statistically tied with the president, 44% to 43% in Florida and 42% to 44% in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of voters in the three states.

Obama, however, has improved on his lead in Pennsylvania, where he beats Romney 47% to 39%, up from the 45%-42% lead he enjoyed in March.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... 6280.story

In the critical state of Virginia, average of 4 polls.

Nero +2, 47-45 (mix of Registered Voters and Likely Voters)

This poll is a bit old, but I think all of us should read the details, since it is germaine and it addresses most of the problems that crop up here in the Poll Thread.

Bottom line: it's a tough call.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-cont ... oll_v9.pdf

Not all news is bad. In Arizona:

Romney +9 (Likely Voters), 52-43, but then Arizona should be red.

Tea Party target Dick Lugar appears to be on the ropes

Indystar calls this latest poll result a “dramatic slide,” and is it ever.  Incumbent Senator Dick Lugar led the race in the last iteration of the Howey/DePauw poll by seven points.  Today, he’s trailing by ten, and Lugar has only four days to turn it around:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/04/m ... a-primary/

Tea Party target Dick Lugar appears to be on the ropes

Indystar calls this latest poll result a “dramatic slide,” and is it ever.  Incumbent Senator Dick Lugar led the race in the last iteration of the Howey/DePauw poll by seven points.  Today, he’s trailing by ten, and Lugar has only four days to turn it around:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/04/m ... a-primary/

Does mean the Tea Party will help elect another Democrat?

Tea Party target Dick Lugar appears to be on the ropes

Indystar calls this latest poll result a “dramatic slide,” and is it ever.  Incumbent Senator Dick Lugar led the race in the last iteration of the Howey/DePauw poll by seven points.  Today, he’s trailing by ten, and Lugar has only four days to turn it around:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/04/m ... a-primary/

Does mean the Tea Party will help elect another Democrat?

For what it's worth, Mourdock is the elected state treasurer, so he probably knows how to win statewide elections and is probably a known quantity in Indiana.

Latest info:
Rasmussen has Romney up 47-45 (1500 LV, 3-day rolling average)
Battleground has Romney up 48-47 (LV)
Gallup had Romney up 46-45 (RV, 5-day rolling average)

Rush mentioned something interesting. In some of the southwest states, dem voter registration has dropped 10-20%. The inferred connection is to the return of illegals to greener pastures in Mexico.

Today's Rasmussen numbers: Romney 49, Obama 44. Obama approval rating, 47%.

Rush mentioned something interesting. In some of the southwest states, dem voter registration has dropped 10-20%. The inferred connection is to the return of illegals to greener pastures in Mexico.

Thanks Ohole!

The GOP should make a campaign ad out of that.

In Ohio, Nero +7 (Registered voters), 50-43.

Another must have state for Romney that doesn't look good. According to this site, Nero taking Ohio is enough for him to seal the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

In Ohio, Nero +7 (Registered voters), 50-43.

Another must have state for Romney that doesn't look good. According to this site, Nero taking Ohio is enough for him to seal the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Every single polling outfit has Obama leading in Ohio.

I think after this election, we should change the flag and replace the stars and stripes with whips and chains, because we clearly have become a nation of masochists.

In Ohio, Nero +7 (Registered voters), 50-43.

Another must have state for Romney that doesn't look good. According to this site, Nero taking Ohio is enough for him to seal the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Every single polling outfit has Obama leading in Ohio.

I think after this election, we should change the flag and replace the stars and stripes with whips and chains, because we clearly have become a nation of masochists.

RCP has AZ as a tossup, SC and GA "leaning" Romney.

My MASTER BULLSHIT annunciator light is blinking.

In Ohio, Nero +7 (Registered voters), 50-43.

Another must have state for Romney that doesn't look good. According to this site, Nero taking Ohio is enough for him to seal the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Every single polling outfit has Obama leading in Ohio.

I think after this election, we should change the flag and replace the stars and stripes with whips and chains, because we clearly have become a nation of masochists.

RCP has AZ as a tossup, SC and GA "leaning" Romney.

My MASTER BULLSHIT annunciator light is blinking.

I hope you are right. Otherwise we may be living in our own little bubble of reality where the laws of fantasy land don't penetrate.

In Ohio, Nero +7 (Registered voters), 50-43.

Another must have state for Romney that doesn't look good. According to this site, Nero taking Ohio is enough for him to seal the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Every single polling outfit has Obama leading in Ohio.

I think after this election, we should change the flag and replace the stars and stripes with whips and chains, because we clearly have become a nation of masochists.

RCP has AZ as a tossup, SC and GA "leaning" Romney.

My MASTER BULLSHIT annunciator light is blinking.

I saw that too. Last week Texas was in the same category. I chalk it up to a shift in demographics and the fact that liberals are fleeing the sinking deep blue New York and California ships for the red states. The rate at which it is happening is apparently so rapid, we are going to soon run out of sea worthy vessels. I think we are going to all be underwater in the not too distant future.

So it's think or swim, eh?